| Identify Participants for Futures Process |
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- Current and future stakeholders
- Sources of specialist information
- Power-holders and key decision makers
- Potential allies, opponents and blockers
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| Analyse the Forces Shaping the Future |
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- Social, technical, economic, environmental, and political forces
affecting the organisation and its stakeholders and its markets
– now and into the future
- The way in which the organisation currently engages with its
environment and with the future and manages its “journey”
into the future
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| Identify Architecture of the Future |
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- Emerging issues and trends
- Possible surprises, wildcards
- Organisational processes (planning, decision-making, performance
management, incentives and rewards, change management, etc)
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| Draft the Scenario Outlines |
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- Prepare “dot point” scenarios using the major dimensions
of uncertainty identified in previous step
- Rate the scenarios for likelihood, potential impact, business
attractiveness and potential for learning
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| Flesh Out Selected Scenarios |
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- Scenarios identified as having maximum relevance to the organisation
and maximum benefit in stimulating strategic thinking about the
future are elaborated using all available information (including
informed, creative imagination)
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| “Wind-tunnel” the Selected Scenarios |
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- Stakeholder representatives assess the likely implications for
them and their organisations of each of the selected scenarios
- Managers of the various parts of the organisation assess the
likely implications for them and the units they represent of each
of the selected scenarios: e.g. business impacts; staff impacts;
environmental impacts; societal impacts; resource implications
of adapting to each scenario
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- Monitoring for early warning signals in the external environment
indicating which scenario is unfolding
- Managing short/medium term issues and changes
- Preparing longer term business development strategy (including
identifying potential new products and services; and changes in
demand for existing products/services)
- Preparing organisational development strategy (encompassing
technology; corporate culture and competitiveness as employer;
organisation structure and stakeholder relationships; etc)
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| Implementing Strategy for Growing Organisational Agility |
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- Enhancing organisational readiness to become a highly agile
organisation (i.e. one that can adapt and prosper in different
futures) – removing fear and creating incentives to change
- Starting the journey
- Building momentum and commitment - celebrating early “wins”
- Sustaining the process of future-proofing the organisation
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| Monitoring and Refining the Futures Process |
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- Monitoring the impact of the futures process on the quality
of strategic thinking, decision making, and timeliness in seizing
opportunities and dealing with potential threats
- Modifying the futures process, to maximise the organisation’s
foresight, agility and success.
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